Weekly economic update for November 29, 2021


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy
  • GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, according to a second estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Wholesale inventories rose 2.2% in October compared with September, the Census Bureau stated in an advance report.
  • Durable goods orders decreased 0.5% in October, the Census Bureau noted in an advance report.


Employment
  • Initial jobless claims fell by 71,000 to 199,000 in the week ended November 20, 2021, reaching the lowest level since November 15, 1969.


Profits
  • As of November 18, 2021, of the 475 S&P 500 Index companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 379 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
  • Corporate profits increased 4.3% at a quarterly rate in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Emotion
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell to 67.4 in November from 71.7 in October, reaching the lowest level since 2011.


Europe
  • The IHS Markit Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index rose to 55.8 in November from 54.2 in October.
  • The European Commission’s Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator fell sharply in November compared with October.
  • The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany declined in November.


Rates
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded in a wide range.


Risks
  • Divergent vaccination rollout timelines and virus mutations risk could cause a shift from a synchronized global recovery to a more fractured regional, multispeed recovery.
  • Global leverage, created by pandemic response packages, is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for.
  • Upward pressure on inflation from multiple fronts (energy prices, housing costs, and the labor market) could pressure central banks to pull forward their timelines for monetary policy normalization.


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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.