Explore our thinking about today's financial markets
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Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
May 19, 2023 | Fixed income
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
Capital Markets Outlook

Be careful what you wish for
April 12, 2023 | Capital Markets Outlook
Fears of a U.S. recession are growing as credit delinquency begins to rise toward pre-pandemic levels. Explore the risk and realities of how a credit crunch could unfold.
Fixed Income Outlook

Financial stability risk and recession odds rise
May 9, 2023 | Fixed Income Outlook
A final rate hike and a possible credit squeeze loom over the economy.
Equity Insights

You must be present to win: The outlook for large-cap growth stocks
May 1, 2023 | Equity Insights
Large-cap growth stocks delivered solid returns in the early months of 2023, and we remain optimistic about their prospects.

What's next for the traditional 60/40 portfolio
Volatility in both stock and bond markets persisted in Q3 2022, with equity markets making new year-to-date lows and interest rates reaching the highest levels since 2008. 2022 has also presented challenges for the traditional 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio.

Slowing economic growth and fixed income performance
As a follow up to the piece we published in July that focused on decelerating economic growth and equity returns, we thought it made sense to look at how some fixed income sectors fared during the same periods. We researched this concept to better understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, credit spreads, and total returns.

Consumer sentiment and forward market performance
In light of decades-high inflation, the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, and concerns about an economic slowdown, U.S. consumer sentiment has plummeted.. This year, sentiment is historically low, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.

Style and factor performance during economic deceleration
Investors are concerned about decelerating economic growth and what this could mean for future equity returns. We researched this question to understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, earnings degradation, and any subsequent style or factor performance.

Yield curve inversion and market performance
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The central bank also indicated that this is likely the start of a tightening cycle, as policymakers attempt to dampen the elevated levels of inflation seen since the start of the pandemic.