Weekly economic update for August 9, 2021


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy
  • The IHS Markit U.S. Composite PMI Output Index fell to 59.9 in July from 63.7 in June.
  • The trade deficit widened in June compared with May, the Census Bureau found.
  • Durable goods orders increased 0.9% in June, according to the Census Bureau.


Employment
  • The United States added 943,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in July from 5.9% in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found.
  • Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 385,000 in the week ended July 31, 2021, the Labor Department reported.


Profits
  • As of July 30, 2021, of the 294 S&P 500 Index companies reporting second-quarter earnings, 258 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.


Emotion
  • The IBD/TIPP consumer confidence poll slipped in August.


Europe
  • Euro area retail trade increased 1.5% in June compared with May, according to Eurostat.
  • Eurostat reported that euro area industrial producer prices rose 1.4% in June compared with May.
  • The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index advanced to 60.2 in July from 59.5 in June.


Rates
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded in a narrow range.
  • The Bank of England decided to maintain its current bank rate.


Risks
  • Divergent vaccination rollout timelines and virus mutations risk could cause a shift from a synchronized global recovery to a more fractured regional, multispeed recovery.
  • Global leverage, created by pandemic response packages, is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for.
  • A shift from “just in time” to “just in case” inventory models could exacerbate supply chain concerns.


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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.