Economic Updates

Keep up to date on the global economy and its impact on markets.

We see a mid-cycle slowdown, but upside on the horizon

We see a mid-cycle slowdown, but upside on the horizon

Q1 2019 | Capital Markets Outlook

As the S&P 500 Index teetered on the verge of a bear market at year-end, we fielded numerous questions about the prospects for an impending recession.

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Global growth outlook cools amid higher interest rates and market volatility

Q1 2019 | Fixed Income Outlook

The outlook for global growth in 2019 has slipped because of rising real interest rates, trade tensions, and asset market volatility.

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The upside of the downturn

Q1 2019 | Equity Outlook

Equity investors worldwide greeted the new year with an array of heightened concerns.

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Economic Update for February 19, 2019

Economy
  • The CPI remained unchanged and the core CPI increased 0.2% in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics stated.
  • The Producer Price Index for final demand slipped 0.1% in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted.
  • The Census reported that retail sales fell 1.2% in December.
Employment
  • Initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 239,000 in the week ended February 9, 2019, according to the Labor Department.
Profits
  • As of February 8, 2019, with 66% of the S&P 500 Index companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings, 71% have reported a positive EPS surprise and 62% reported a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet.
Emotion
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped in January.
  • The University of Michigan’s preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 95.5 in February from 91.2 in January.