- 2017 and 2018 saw relatively small movements in Treasury yields
- Yields remain likely to rise in the medium term
- Active strategies can help to offset the risk of rising yields
Yields have moved within a narrow range for two years
Since the start of 2017, the U.S. 10-year Treasury has traded in a range with yields of 2.04% to 3.24%. Although this range is not particularly wide for a two-year period by historic standards, the changes in trends during this period were significant: a drop of 58 basis points (bps), a rise of 119 bps, and a drop of 68 bps. Given the high level of interest-rate sensitivity in Treasuries and investment-grade bonds, investors have felt these rate moves in their portfolios.
Yield volatility actually fell during 2018
Over the past couple of years, the volatility environment has been historically low. Most people associated the low-volatility environment with equity markets, but low volatility has been a common characteristic across a number of asset classes. These asset classes include fixed income, and the more interest-rate-sensitive areas of fixed-income markets.
To see this low level of volatility, consider the CBOE 10-YR U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index (TYVIX). Just as the VIX Index measures the volatility of the S&P 500 Index, TYVIX measures Treasury note volatility. In 2018, even as financial advisors and asset managers gave warnings about the risks of rising rates, the actual volatility of the U.S. 10-year Treasury was well below average. Since the TYVIX has been tracked, the long-term average is 6.30. The 2018 average was 4.04. It was even lower than the below-average rate of 4.50 in 2017.
Active duration may be helpful if yield volatility reverts to more normal levels
Our view is that rates are biased upward over the medium to long term. However, as yields remain low around the globe, the landscape and dynamic may keep the U.S. 10-year lower for longer. In other words, the low volatility of the past couple of years could persist.
These two juxtaposing forces may create a trading range for the U.S. 10-year in the interim. If TYVIX moves to more normal levels, a wider range could be established. Investment managers can take advantage of trends within this range actively, rather than having a structural duration position.
We believe that diversifying away from interest-rate risk within fixed-income sectors is a strategy to help neutralize this risk over the medium term. Examples of ways to do this include allocations to non-traditional bond portfolios or to multi-asset strategies capable of tactical positioning in rates.
316196
For informational purposes only. Not an investment recommendation.
This material is provided for limited purposes. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, or any Putnam product or strategy. References to specific asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations or investment advice. The opinions expressed in this article represent the current, good-faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication. The views are provided for informational purposes only and are subject to change. This material does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. Investors should consult a financial advisor for advice suited to their individual financial needs. Putnam Investments cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any statements or data contained in the article. Predictions, opinions, and other information contained in this article are subject to change. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Putnam assumes no duty to update them. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As with any investment, there is a potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or ensure against loss. It is possible to lose money in a diversified portfolio.
Consider these risks before investing: International investing involves certain risks, such as currency fluctuations, economic instability, and political developments. Investments in small and/or midsize companies increase the risk of greater price fluctuations. Bond investments are subject to interest-rate risk, which means the prices of the fund’s bond investments are likely to fall if interest rates rise. Bond investments also are subject to credit risk, which is the risk that the issuer of the bond may default on payment of interest or principal. Interest-rate risk is generally greater for longer-term bonds, and credit risk is generally greater for below-investment-grade bonds, which may be considered speculative. Unlike bonds, funds that invest in bonds have ongoing fees and expenses. Lower-rated bonds may offer higher yields in return for more risk. Funds that invest in government securities are not guaranteed. Mortgage-backed securities are subject to prepayment risk. Commodities involve the risks of changes in market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions. You can lose money by investing in a mutual fund.
Putnam Retail Management.