Weekly economic update for September 19, 2022


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy
  • The CPI rose 0.1% and core CPI increased 0.6% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted.
  • The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Retail sales rose 0.3% in August compared with July, the Census Bureau reported.


Employment
  • Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 213,000 in the week ended September 10, 2022, according to the Department of Labor.


Profits
  • As of September 8, 2022, of the 497 S&P 500 Index companies reporting second-quarter earnings, 371 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.


Emotion
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose in August.


Europe
  • Eurostat reported euro area industrial production fell 2.3% in July compared with June.
  • Germany’s Federal Statistical Office noted the inflation rate rose 7.9% year over year in August.
  • The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics reported GDP grew 0.2% in July.


Rates
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose.


Risks
  • Rising energy prices, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine War, increase the risk of stagflation and recession, even as central banks seek monetary policy normalization.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.


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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.