Explore research driven analysis of evolving market themes.
Why we feel recession talk is premature
The yield curve and Leading Economic Indicators are two effective recession indicators that offer insights on potential opportunities and risks ahead.
The value opportunity
If earnings grow as expected, value stocks may have an edge over growth stocks in 2018.
Munis feel knock-on effects of tax reform
The municipal bond market will likely see a reduction in supply in 2018 because of certain provisions in the new tax reform law.
Market sectors that might lead in 2018
Technology’s strength seems set to continue, but with the prospect of rising rates, financials may also be among the leading market sectors.
Just how cheap are European equities?
Our analysis finds that industry group weightings play a significant role in valuation discrepancies between U.S. and European equities.
What could disturb unprecedented calm in markets?
What’s most remarkable about 2017 is the market calm, but this is not a sign that the trend will revert to the mean.
Looking for impact in CEO compensation
It’s important for investors to be able to understand how a company’s performance relates to CEO compensation.
Longevity and medical costs – education for the great unknowns
Understanding the impact of longevity and medical costs on savings requires education and a proactive approach to saving.
Why a meaningful near-term market correction is unlikely
2017 is a rare year without a stock market correction of at least 5%, but that doesn't make a correction more likely in the fourth quarter.
How the Japan election may influence global interest rates
The Japan election could have consequences for the future leadership of the Bank of Japan and the country's impact on global interest rate trends.
Using and enhancing ESG investment data
ESG data is having investment impact but is still evolving, and stands to benefit from feedback offered by fundamental analysts.
Value benefits from an expanding economy
Value stocks have lagged the market in 2017, but if the economy continues to expand, rates rise, and the yield curve steepens, this trend could reverse.
Spotting unexpected turns in the growth and value cycle
While a diversified portfolio should include both growth and value, today’s valuations and economy point to a value cycle.
Why investor pessimism may be a good sign
Investor pessimism has historically proven to be reasonably effective as a contrarian investment signal, and market sentiment has plunged again this year.
What two of the best recession signals say today
Two indicators can give the quickest read on whether a recession may be near.
Why Brazil's crisis creates new concerns
The revelations of May 17 may pose a threat to President Temer's administration, and therefore a threat to Brazil's short- and medium-term economic outlook.
Crisis abated, it’s time to dust off the old playbook
Today's pro-cyclical, rising rate environment has a playbook with historical precedent.
Why rates matter to stocks, too
Risk factor analysis shows that equity market sectors that act like “bond proxies” may be more sensitive to changes in interest rates than bonds themselves.
What higher rates mean for income strategies
What do higher rates mean after almost a decade of near-zero rates? It's time to reconsider risk in fixed-income portfolios.
Can Trump follow Reagan's playbook?
Trump administration fiscal policy is expected to be similar to Ronald Reagan's measures, but economic conditions today are much different than in 1981.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.