Explore research driven analysis of evolving market themes.
Spotting unexpected turns in the growth and value cycle
While a diversified portfolio should include both growth and value, today’s valuations and economy point to a value cycle.
Why investor pessimism may be a good sign
Investor pessimism has historically proven to be reasonably effective as a contrarian investment signal, and market sentiment has plunged again this year.
What two of the best recession signals say today
Two indicators can give the quickest read on whether a recession may be near.
Why Brazil's crisis creates new concerns
The revelations of May 17 may pose a threat to President Temer's administration, and therefore a threat to Brazil's short- and medium-term economic outlook.
Crisis abated, it’s time to dust off the old playbook
Today's pro-cyclical, rising rate environment has a playbook with historical precedent.
Why rates matter to stocks, too
Risk factor analysis shows that equity market sectors that act like “bond proxies” may be more sensitive to changes in interest rates than bonds themselves.
What higher rates mean for income strategies
What do higher rates mean after almost a decade of near-zero rates? It's time to reconsider risk in fixed-income portfolios.
Can Trump follow Reagan's playbook?
Trump administration fiscal policy is expected to be similar to Ronald Reagan's measures, but economic conditions today are much different than in 1981.
Six facts about Dow 20,000
The 20,000 milestone reached by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) garnered major media attention, but that’s due more to the fame of the index.
Does the market rally really depend on Trump?
The bullish case for stocks assumes that the Trump tax reforms and spending increases will be implemented, but Washington can be unpredictable.
Taking the temperature of the January effect
Is the so-called January Effect a real opportunity for investors, or is it too well-known to be exploited? We offer a number of perspectives.
See the dove in the Fed's dot plot
The market sees a more hawkish Fed in the December 2016 rate hike, but we see see signs of a dove in the Fed's dot plot.
Watch the euro as Italy votes
We are watching the referendum in Italy this weekend for yet another existential crisis for the euro.
Diversifying stable value with traditional GICs
Stable value portfolios that avoid traditional GICs may be missing a diversification opportunity that also offers liquidity.
Negative interest rates explained
Today's unorthodox central bank policies have made negative interest rates more normal, with potential consequences for government bonds and the banking sector.
Proceeding toward Brexit: The risks for investors
With the United Kingdom beginning to move foward with Brexit, we see risks to the economy, the pound, and the markets.
Buyer beware: Defensive sectors may be overvalued
Seven years into this bull market, defensive sectors have leading performance, and may be signaling more attractive opportunities elsewhere.
Italy's bank troubles challenge EU
Troubled banks in Italy pose a new challenge to the EU, one that has been compounded by the U.K.'s vote in favor of Brexit.
Can government reform brighten EM growth outlook?
Our research has identified both near- and long-term investment opportunities in EM countries that may benefit from a combination of policy reform, policy independence, and insulation from falling commodity prices.
The bright side of investor pessimism
A widely followed measure of investor sentiment is showing historically low levels of bullishness. This pessimism could be good news for equities.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.