Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | January 2017

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam’s interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Growth ended 2016 well above its recent range

SHORT-TERM TREND

Global growth continued on a modest upward trend in December, mainly due to U.S. data.

3.28%

U.S. consumer sentiment surveys improved in December. New orders in durable and capital goods showed significant improvements. Employment and wage inflation were muted; housing was stable.

LONG-TERM CYCLE

This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis and the low-growth reality of the “new normal.”

Sept ’10–Dec ’13

Global growth swings dramatically, under pressure from sovereign debt crises and darkening global growth prospects amid fitful recoveries.

Jan ’14–present

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results. This may signal flatter yield curves for the foreseeable future.

Source: Putnam. Data as of December 31, 2016. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.