Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | February 2017

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam’s interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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Growth began 2017 on a strong note

SHORT-TERM TREND

Global growth picked up significantly in January, with improvements across a wide range of countries.

3.78%

U.S. manufacturing data were strong in January, and consumer confidence rose. Housing modestly improved, and the labor market was stable. Europe also experienced manufacturing strength.

LONG-TERM CYCLE

This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Sept ’10–Dec ’13

Global growth swings dramatically, under pressure from sovereign debt crises and darkening global growth prospects amid fitful recoveries.

Jan ’14–Oct ’16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Source: Putnam. Data as of January 31, 2017. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.