Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | October 2017

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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The robust trajectory remains in force

SHORT-TERM TREND
Slightly slowing in September, growth stayed in its recent range.
3.69%

The G10 economies were largely stable, although Canada’s trade performance and Europe’s service sector weakened. Mexico’s growth helped lift Latin America. In Asia, Malaysia weakened but Taiwan and Singapore improved.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Sept ’10–Dec ’13

Global growth swings dramatically, under pressure from sovereign debt crises and darkening global growth prospects amid fitful recoveries.

Jan ’14–Oct ’16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Source: Putnam. Data as of September 30, 2017. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.