Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | December 2017

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam’s interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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The growth trajectory remains stable

SHORT-TERM TREND
Growth was stable in November.
3.90%

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in the third quarter. The G10 economies were largely mixed: New Zealand’s growth stumbled due to declining monetary conditions and business confidence, while Canada’s economy expanded. Growth slowed in Mexico. In Asia, the Chinese yuan held flat, and the Singapore dollar gained.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Sept ’10–Dec ’13

Global growth swings dramatically, under pressure from sovereign debt crises and darkening global growth prospects amid fitful recoveries.

Jan ’14–Oct ’16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov ’16–today

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of November 30, 2017. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.