The acceleration in global growth witnessed in 2017 will continue well into 2018, but with significant changes in its components. While growth in the United States is expected to pick up, the eurozone and China face downside risks. The U.S. tax bill could create some upward momentum in growth in the world’s largest economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve will be the focus in 2018, especially in the first half as a new chairman takes office, new members join the Open Market Committee, and rate increases and balance sheet reduction are implemented at a faster pace. In fact, we believe one of the biggest risks to the outlook is the Fed moving too aggressively. And finally, the U.K.’s progress toward Brexit has not come without continued setbacks for Prime Minister Teresa May.


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The acceleration in global growth witnessed in 2017 will continue well into 2018, but with significant changes in its components.