Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | March 2018

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam’s interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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The growth trajectory remains stable

SHORT-TERM TREND
Global growth was little changed in February
4.11%

Among G10 countries, growth picked up in the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Growth slowed in Canada and Sweden. Turkey and South Africa’s economies expanded, leading growth among countries in the Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEEMEA) regions. In Asia, growth improved in Taiwan and Thailand, but slowed in Malaysia and Singapore.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Sept ’10–Dec ’13

Global growth swings dramatically, under pressure from sovereign debt crises and darkening global growth prospects amid fitful recoveries.

Jan ’14–Oct ’16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov ’16–today

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of February 28, 2018. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.