Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | March 2019

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

Download this edition of The Macro Report (PDF)


Global economic growth extends slide

SHORT-TERM TREND
Economic expansion loses momentum
1.95%

Growth among G10 countries was mixed, with the eurozone leading the decliners. In the eurozone, the services sector and industrial production dropped. The United States’ economic indicators, including the ISM non-manufacturing, disappointed. Latin America’s growth was buoyed by Brazil. Growth slowed in Asia, including China.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of February 28, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth..