Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | May 2019

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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Global economic growth bounces back

SHORT-TERM TREND
The economy looks a little stronger, but downside risks remain
2.57%

Growth among G10 nations improved, led by the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and the United States. In the eurozone, industrial production gained. In the United States, consumer confidence, retail sales, and trade were positive contributors. In China, rising industrial output and housing stats contributed to growth. However, growth slowed in New Zealand, Malaysia, and Singapore.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of April 30, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.