Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | August 2019

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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Global economy continues to weaken

SHORT-TERM TREND
The erosion in growth is due to a slowdown in manufacturing and trade risks
2.19%

In the United States, growth held relatively steady amid faltering manufacturing, as well as disappointing regional surveys and housing market indicators. In the eurozone, there was a modest drop in the growth forecast. But the United Kingdom slowed significantly as manufacturing PMIs, retail sales, and business sentiment declined. Economic indicators weakened in China, Russia, and Latin America.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of July 31, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.