Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | September 2019

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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Global economy cools slightly

SHORT-TERM TREND
The pace of growth is slipping, but it is still above the lows of post-2009
1.99%

The G-10 economies led the global slowdown. Industrial production in the eurozone continued to falter. In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index disappointed.But Britain's IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index and the composite PMI rose. Economic indicators improved in Brazil and China.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of August 31, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.