Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | October 2019

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth shows signs of stabilizing

SHORT-TERM TREND
The Nowcast ticked up, but it is still near the bottom of the post-recession range.
2.10%

Among G-10 economies, the United Kingdom and Canada improved while the eurozone had a disappointing month. In Britain, manufacturing, services, and labor market indicators gained. However, manufacturing PMI in the eurozone faltered. Economic indicators improved in Turkey and Brazil. In China, two gauges for manufacturing activity showed expansion.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Putnam. Data as of September 30, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.