Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | December 2019

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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Global growth improves slightly

SHORT-TERM TREND
Growth will probably trend sideways.
2.25%

Among G-10 economies, the United States and Britain had a disappointing month. In the United States, data flow was mixed. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index improved, while the ISM manufacturing and services sectors faltered. In the eurozone, the services PMI, business sentiment, and consumer confidence gained. China's growth held steady.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of November 30, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.