Global growth moves sideways
SHORT-TERM TRENDLow-growth environment continues in December.
Among G-10 economies, the United States and New Zealand had positive data flow. In the United States, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (a gauge of consumer sentiment) and housing indicators improved. Britain recorded a decline in economic activity, with manufacturing, retail sales, and composite PMI trending lower. Economic indicators deteriorated in Russia, Turkey, and Chile. China’s growth held steady.
LONG-TERM CYCLEThis six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.
Jan '14–Oct '16Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.
Nov '16–Dec '17More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.
Source: Putnam. Data as of December 31, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.