Virus cuts global growth outlook
SHORT-TERM TRENDEconomic outlook is cooling amid the COVID-19 outbreak.
Among G-10 economies, the United States and Canada had positive data flow, but the eurozone declined. In the United States, trade, consumer confidence, and nonfarm payrolls improved. Canada’s GDP outlook was buoyed by a strong labor market and retail sales. In the eurozone, industrial output fell. Economic indicators improved in Mexico and Brazil. China PMI fell amid the virus pandemic.
LONG-TERM CYCLEThis six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.
Jan '14–Oct '16Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.
Nov '16–Dec '17More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.
Source: Putnam. Data as of February 29, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.