Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | March 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

Virus cuts global growth outlook

Economic outlook is cooling amid the COVID-19 outbreak.

Among G-10 economies, the United States and Canada had positive data flow, but the eurozone declined. In the United States, trade, consumer confidence, and nonfarm payrolls improved. Canada’s GDP outlook was buoyed by a strong labor market and retail sales. In the eurozone, industrial output fell. Economic indicators improved in Mexico and Brazil. China PMI fell amid the virus pandemic.

This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of February 29, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers’ index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.