Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | May 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global economy suffers steep contraction

SHORT-TERM TREND
Economic outlook deteriorates sharply amid the coronavirus pandemic.
-9.95%

The G-10 economies were the hardest hit. The United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada had negative data flow. In the United States, weekly jobless claims rose and industrial production slumped, signaling significant economic downturn. In the eurozone, manufacturing and services PMIs fell amid the pandemic. Economic indicators slumped in Brazil, Turkey, and Russia. China's data improved as industrial output and retail sales turned positive.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of April 30, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.