Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | July 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global economy shows signs of stabilization

SHORT-TERM TREND
Growth forecast improved in June as economies reopened amid virus resurgence fears.
-10.01%

Among G-10 economies, the United States led the gains. The eurozone, Japan and New Zealand have also started to recover, but economic indicators in the United Kingdom signaled a downturn. In the United States, recovery was widespread across indicators; non-farm payrolls, manufacturing sector activity, personal spending and consumer sentiment improved. Among CEEMEA countries, Turkey had the biggest improvement. In Latin America, Brazil’s economic indicators improved as Mexico lost ground. In Asia, China and South Korea growth indicators improved. China had a steady stream of positive releases, including manufacturing and services PMIs.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of June 30, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.