Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | August 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth outlook improves slightly

SHORT-TERM TREND
The pace of growth picked up with improvements seen across all regions.
0.44%

Among G-10 economies, the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan and Canada led the global recovery. In the United States, industrial production, retail sales, personal spending, the ADP National Employment Report and non-farm payrolls improved. In the eurozone, manufacturing PMI and industrial production in manufacturing and energy had the biggest gains. Economic indicators improved in Turkey, Russia, Brazil and Mexico. In Asia, China’s economic indicators improved but Malaysia continued to slowdown.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of July 31, 2020.. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.