Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | September 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth accelerates

SHORT-TERM TREND
Economic outlook is starting to look a bit brighter
7.97%

Among G-10 economies, the eurozone, Canada, and the United Kingdom had positive data flow, but New Zealand declined. In the eurozone, Germany’s factory orders, construction PMIs, and industrial production advanced. The United States’ GDP outlook was buoyed by improving continuing jobless claims, housing purchases, and refinancing. Economic indicators improved in Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, and Russia. China’s data was mixed as industrial output disappointed and manufacturing PMIs advanced.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of August 31, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.