Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | October 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth outlook holds steady

SHORT-TERM TREND
The pace of growth moderates and investors eye vaccine progress
8.56%

Among the G-10 economies, including the United States and Britain, the outlook is normalizing. In the United Kingdom, housing prices, composite services, and construction PMI improved. In Japan, industrial production and capacity utilization fell and turned growth around from the peak. In New Zealand, disappointing manufacturing PMIs sent the growth path lower. Economic indicators improved in Latin America. Asia's economic data is improving, led by Singapore. China's data flow held steady.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of September 30, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.