Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | November 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth outlook is easing

SHORT-TERM TREND
The resurgence of the virus creates a headwind for the pace of the recovery.
6.52%

Among G-10 economies, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada had negative data flow. In the eurozone, services PMIs, industrial production, and economic sentiment contributed the most to the downward trajectory. Britain recorded a decline in economic activity, with manufacturing and composite PMIs trending lower. By contrast, manufacturing activity improved in New Zealand and Sweden. Economic indicators deteriorated in Russia and Turkey. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile added to growth. China’s growth held steady.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of October 31, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.