Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | December 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth outlook trends lower

SHORT-TERM TREND
The near-term economic has been deteriorating as the pandemic drags on.
5.29%

Among G-10 economies, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and the eurozone slowed. In Britain, there was a downward trend in manufacturing, composite and services PMIs, and business conditions survey. In the eurozone, services PMIs, industrial production in manufacturing, and energy disappointed. But economic indicators improved in Australia, including service PMIs and the labor market. Economic indicators deteriorated in Russia and Turkey. Chile, South Korea, and China’s economic indicators improved.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of November 30, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.