Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | January 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Pandemic slows growth outlook

SHORT-TERM TREND
The global growth projection slowed across regions, with the bulk of the impact in the G-10 economies.
4.14%

Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom experienced the sharpest slowdowns. In the United States, manufacturing and automobile sales were areas of weakness, and consumer spending waned later in the month. Japan experienced weakness throughout December. On the positive side, Australia and New Zealand improved, with employment and manufacturing indicators on an upswing. In other markets, South Africa and Turkey slowed by the largest amounts. Brazil was also weak.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of December 31, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.