Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | February 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth outlook slows

SHORT-TERM TREND
Global growth projections lowered as pandemic continues to disrupt economic activity.
3.76%

Among G-10 economies, the United Kingdom experienced the sharpest slowdown. The United States, Japan, New Zealand, and Canada also weakened. In the United States, export climate PMIs, non-manufacturing employment PMI, initial jobless claims, and personal spending set the growth path lower. Japan’s industrial production and consumer confidence weakened. On the positive side, the eurozone's manufacturing, industrial production, and economic sentiment improved. Brazil was weak. In Asia, Thailand and Singapore improved, while China posted a moderate loss.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of January 31, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.