Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | March 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth outlook slips

SHORT-TERM TREND
The economic outlook of many countries hinges on reaching herd immunity as vaccination campaigns are ramped up.
3.39%

Among G-10 economies, the United Kingdom led the slowdown. The eurozone, Japan, Australia, and Canada also weakened, while indicators were largely unchanged in the United States. Britain's manufacturing and composite PMIs, and capacity utilization deteriorated. The eurozone's services PMI dropped. On the positive side, New Zealand, Russia, Turkey, Thailand, and Singapore improved. In Latin America, Brazil slowed the most. China's activity fell modestly.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of February 28, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.