Global growth outlook slips
SHORT-TERM TRENDThe economic outlook of many countries hinges on reaching herd immunity as vaccination campaigns are ramped up.
Among G-10 economies, the United Kingdom led the slowdown. The eurozone, Japan, Australia, and Canada also weakened, while indicators were largely unchanged in the United States. Britain's manufacturing and composite PMIs, and capacity utilization deteriorated. The eurozone's services PMI dropped. On the positive side, New Zealand, Russia, Turkey, Thailand, and Singapore improved. In Latin America, Brazil slowed the most. China's activity fell modestly.
LONG-TERM CYCLEThis six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.
Jan '14–Oct '16Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.
Nov '16–Dec '17More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.
March '20–presentThe coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.
Source: Putnam. Data as of February 28, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.