Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | April 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth picks up

SHORT-TERM TREND
Asia led the way in economic recovery, while G-10 countries had a more modest pickup.
3.73%

Among G-10 economies, there was a modest increase in growth. Japan and Canada had the largest improvements, while the United States slowed. Japan’s industrial production, economic conditions, and expectations, as well as Business Cycle Coincident and Expectations indicators, improved. In the United States, a slow pickup in ADP employment and disappointing industrial production and capacity utilization sent growth lower. Elsewhere, South Africa’s economic indicators improved as Turkey and Brazil declined. China’s industrial output (power generation) and housing starts rose.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of March 31, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.