Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | May 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Brighter outlook for global growth

SHORT-TERM TREND
The economic outlook improved for G-10 countries but held steady in Asia.
4.77%

The growth outlook improved for all G-10 countries, led by New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Japan. In New Zealand, the manufacturing PMI reached the highest level since 2002. The U.K.’s composite and services PMIs, as well as construction activities, advanced. In the United States, retail sales, personal consumption, and manufacturing gained. Central and Eastern Europe, along with Middle East and Africa, added to growth. In Asia, Taiwan and South Korea slowed while China had a more modest improvement.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of April 30, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.