Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | June 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth inflects higher

SHORT-TERM TREND
With the exception of Asia, all regions contributed to the pickup in growth.
5.32%

Among G-10 economies, the eurozone and the United Kingdom improved, while Japan, Canada, and New Zealand slowed modestly. There was a slight gain in the United States. In the United Kingdom, services and construction PMIs, along with retail sales, advanced. The eurozone's economic sentiment and unemployment data sent the growth path higher. But Japan had disappointing jobs, industrial production, and capacity utilization numbers. In Latin America, Mexico's economic activity had the largest improvement. Most of Asia slowed as China and Taiwan held steady.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of May 31, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.