Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | July 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth remains steady

SHORT-TERM TREND
Economic recovery differs among countries amid reopenings and vaccinations
5.30%

Among G-10 economies, Japan slowed the most while the United States and Canada slowed modestly. The eurozone and the United Kingdom improved. In Japan, the current conditions index of the Economy Watchers' Survey and softer department store sales sent the growth path lower. In the United States, ISM manufacturing, retail sales, and personal consumption disappointed. The U.K.'s manufacturing PMI and services output gained. In Latin America, Brazil's economic indicators improved. Asian economies slowed as Malaysia and China lowered forecasts. China's real estate loans and PMI new orders declined.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has affected global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of June 30, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.