Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | October 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global economic growth moderates

SHORT-TERM TREND
Recovery slows amid supply bottlenecks and higher costs
3.48%

Among Group of 10 economies, New Zealand had the sharpest drop, followed by Australia and Japan. Economic indicators in the United States slowed modestly. In New Zealand, commodity prices remained low as credit card retail spending and manufacturing PMI slowed. Australia's services PMI and employment data weakened. In the United States, export orders, urban consumer price index, along with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing outlooks, were negative contributors to growth. In Latin America, Mexico's growth indicators slowed. In the Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEEMEA) region, South Africa improved. China slowed due to disappointing services PMI, real estate loans, housing starts, and new orders indicators.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Feb '20–April '20

The Covid-19 pandemic causes a global economic downturn.

May '20–present

Global growth estimates start to pick up and stabilize as countries ease mobility restrictions and vaccination rates rise.

Source: Putnam. Data as of September 30, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.