Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | November 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global economic growth slows

SHORT-TERM TREND
Recovery among the Group of 10 developed economies and Latin America falters
3.01%

Among G10 economies, the eurozone and Australia had the biggest slowdown. New Zealand's economic indicators improved significantly, while those in the United States remained unchanged. In the eurozone, growth in capacity utilization and manufacturing activity disappointed. Employment data declined in Australia. In New Zealand, the Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing gained, sending the growth path higher. In Latin America, Mexico had the largest slowdown, while Chile improved. Growth forecast in Russia improved. In Asia, China's economic indicators held steady.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Feb '20–April '20

The Covid-19 pandemic causes a global economic downturn.

May '20–present

Global growth estimates start to pick up and stabilize as countries ease mobility restrictions and vaccination rates rise.

Source: Putnam. Data as of October 31, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.