Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | December 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global economic growth improves

SHORT-TERM TREND
G-10 economies lead the recovery as other regions slowed or remained flat
3.30%

Among G-10 economies, Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom had the largest improvements. The United States had a modest uptick in economic data, while Canada slowed significantly. Japan's current conditions index of the Economy Watchers' Survey, business cycle indicator, as well as services sector activity, were positive contributors to growth. In the United States, industrial production, capacity utilization, initial and continuing jobless claims, as well as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business outlook survey and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index added to the upward trend. Elsewhere, economic indicators in Turkey, Brazil, and Taiwan slowed. China's growth indicators remained flat.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Feb '20–April '20

The Covid-19 pandemic causes a global economic downturn.

May '20–present

Global growth estimates start to pick up and stabilize as countries ease mobility restrictions and vaccination rates rise.

Source: Putnam. Data as of November 30, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.