Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | January 2022

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Modest pickup in global economic growth

SHORT-TERM TREND
G-10 and Asian economies improved, while Latin America remained flat
3.71%

Among G-10 economies, Australia, Canada, and Japan improved the most. New Zealand slowed. U.S. economic indicators stayed flat. In Australia, business indicators and employment data were the most significant contributors to growth. Japan’s economic watchers survey improved, while industrial production and capacity utilization, along with construction orders, rose during the month. But in New Zealand, manufacturing PMIs and business confidence disappointed due to labor shortages, freight disruptions, and rising inflation expectations. Elsewhere, indicators in Turkey and Brazil slowed, and those in South Africa and Mexico improved. In Asia, Malaysia and Thailand improved as China’s economic activity remained flat.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Feb '20–April '20

The Covid-19 pandemic causes a global economic downturn.

May '20–present

Global growth estimates start to pick up and stabilize as countries ease mobility restrictions and vaccination rates rise.

Source: Putnam. Data as of December 31, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.