PUTNAM GLOBAL RISK APPETITE INDEX | January 2022

The Putnam Global Risk Appetite (RA) Index is a proprietary quantitative model that aims to measure investors’ willingness to invest in risky assets, including equities, commodities, high-yield bonds, and other spread sectors. With a composite view of risk-appetite signals across a broad mix of asset types, Putnam’s RA Index provides a framework for discussing investor preferences and can signal trend changes in broad market sentiment.


Risk appetite turns positive

SHORT-TERM TREND

Investor sentiment improves as Omicron worries ease and the Fed affirms policy plans

Risk

  • Major global equity indexes gained with large-cap stocks outperforming.
  • Technology and growth stocks underperformed the broader market.
  • Overall, European stocks did better than the stocks in the United States.
  • U.S. Treasury bonds and fixed income securities with high exposure to Treasuries declined.
  • Fixed income sectors more sensitive to growth generated positive returns.
  • Emerging markets, and other non‐U.S. assets or sectors, benefitted from a stabilizing dollar.
  • Commodity prices rose in line with their betas to risk appetite.
risk key

LONG-TERM CYCLE

This 10-year illustration captures the cyclicality of investors' appetite for risk.

risk key

Sept–Nov '11

Eruption and subsequent clearing of concerns over EU sovereign debt crisis, U.S. debt ceiling, and fear of China hard landing drive major risk sell-off and rally.

March '16–Jan '18

Risk assets rally amid improving commodity prices, perceived stability in China's macro data, and expectations for gradualist Fed policy.

March '20–present

The coronavirus pandemic has created swings in global risk appetite.

Source: Putnam. Data as December 31, 2021. To create the Global Risk Appetite Index, we weigh the monthly relative returns of 30 different asset classes over 3-month T-bills relative to the trailing 2-year volatility of each asset class. The higher the relative return and the lower the volatility, the greater the risk appetite; conversely, the lower the relative return and the higher the volatility, the stronger the risk aversion.