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Outside Asia, growth generally slows

Global growth continued to slow down in July and inflation data again surprised to the upside. U.S. purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) showed slower activity. Services dropped surprisingly, while manufacturing activity fell by a smaller amount. Consumer confidence also declined, and housing sales were down. In Europe, growth decreased. Led by Germany, European PMIs moved into contractionary territory. Consumer confidence and business expectations remained weak. China's growth bounced back as Covid restrictions loosened. China's PMIs moved back to expansion territory for the first time since February. Growth was flat across markets in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as in Latin America.

LONG-TERM CYCLE

This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Source: Putnam. Data as of July 31, 2022. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.

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