On November 8, 2016, Donald Trump continued his remarkable journey, securing an electoral victory that seemed highly improbable in the weeks prior to the election. Moreover, the Republican Party benefited from his strong showing, holding on to a majority in the Senate and the House. Early in 2017, Republicans will control all the levers of U.S. political power.
In our view, it is clear that global markets were not priced for this outcome, and the immediate reactions were violent — but, in many cases, markets just as swiftly reversed course. While it is hard to be confident about what comes next, we venture a few observations this month on U.S. policy trajectories, populist political momentum in Europe, and key risks building in China.