Equity Outlook  |  Q4 2019

The case for U.S. housing

Walter D. Scully, CPA

The case for U.S. housing

Despite a sometimes turbulent ride for global equity markets in 2019, there is still a lot to like about the U.S. consumer sector. Many retail stores and restaurants, particularly at the low end of the market, have experienced impressive sales growth this year. In August, the Commerce Department reported a sixth straight month of positive growth for retail sales. Unemployment is at an all-time low, and wages have increased. And after a brief downturn, the housing market continues to be a positive force for equity investors, in our view.

A bump in the road for housing

In many respects, the U.S. housing market is still recovering from one of its greatest busts in history. Following the peak of the housing bubble in 2006 and the subsequent market collapse, U.S. home prices declined for six years. In 2012, housing began a remarkable recovery, and it has largely been a pillar of strength for the U.S. economy in the years since.

Housing hit a rough patch late in the third quarter of last year due to a significant increase in interest rates. For September 2018, there was a 9% year-over-year drop in sales of single-family existing homes and an 8% year-over-year decline in new home sales. We would describe it as a housing recession that lasted approximately eight months. In July 2019, year-over-year U.S. home sales rose more than expected due to lower mortgage rates and the healthy labor market.

The good news: Inventory is tight

The U.S. economy has continued to grow in 2019, and demand for homes remains steady. In our view, we are not building enough new homes. According to recent data, the current inventory of U.S. homes available for sale is well below the long-term average. This can be good news for consumers as it helps to drive up home prices and boost aggregate housing wealth. Also, although their prices have been increasing, homes are still affordable, helped by rising household income.

When housing wealth grows, even homeowners who choose to stay put tend to invest more in home improvement. The solid demand from homeowners for products, services, and supplies bodes well for many stocks in the consumer sector, particularly home improvement retailers and their suppliers.

Despite rising prices, housing remains affordable

Inventory is tight, boosting housing wealth

Who benefits from housing wealth?

Home improvement retailers in the United States should continue to benefit from the growth in housing wealth. Many of these stocks are attractively priced, and the businesses are generating solid free cash flow and strategically allocating their capital.

Unlike many retailers, home improvement businesses are somewhat insulated from the "Amazon effect" — the pressure placed on traditional businesses from online competition. This is due to the specialized nature of their products and services, many of which are not conducive to online shopping. The same can be said for manufacturers of paint and residential building products.

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