Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes
Why Gaza war has not yet caused an oil price spike
The calamity of war in Gaza since early October has so far had a more muted impact on oil prices than might have been expected. We analyze the market and share our outlook.
Sticky inflation and Treasury supply likely to push yields higher
Stay informed on fixed income markets in the fourth quarter. Get timely updates on currency, credit, and the yield curve.
There’s more to emerging markets than China
Emerging market equities offer a wide variety of exciting investment opportunities, but many of these are often overshadowed by the dominance of China.
Sticky inflation is likely if there is no recession
Trends from the labor market and continued wealth imbalance are setting the stage for sticky inflation. Read the October Macro Report.
Driving with the rearview mirror
With the economic outlook causing wide-ranging debate, we consider what stock and bond valuations indicate.
Debt troubles at Country Garden threaten global blight
China's largest property developer faces a liquidity crisis amid a broader slowdown in its property market. Watch for effects across other sectors and markets.
Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) will face constraints
The Fed is pursuing QT while being careful to avoid market disruption. Compare scenarios for QT and markets in Putnam's Macro Report.
The debt ceiling is raised, but the debt problem persists
As inflation sticks around, it is important to think about how it is related to high government debt.
Contracting money supply poses risk to bonds
A contracting money supply paired with the Fed's quantitative tightening is adding bank sector stress on Treasury and MBS markets.
Economic moats | Active investors seek wider moats
Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.
Why favor higher quality as credit squeeze tightens
Prudent credit selection is paramount as the Fed juggles monetary policy and financial security. Get Putnam’s insights on the SLOOS and the tightening credit squeeze.
Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
Inflation demands Fed's focus as bank lending tightens
Even as bank lending tightens, the Fed may still need to keep rates high for longer to bring down inflation.
The biology revolution: Investing in innovation
Innovations within biology are transforming the world. See how savvy investors are tapping into the bio and synbio revolution.
Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
What the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Means for Powell and Fed Policy
Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the public's shaken faith in the banking system may affect what the Fed is willing to try to curb inflation. Learn more today.
Will interest rates go down?
Our base case for our strategy remains that a recession will wipe out excess savings, and the relatively low interest-rate environment will return.
U.S. recession outlook as China reopens
We outline possible scenarios for inflation and recession in the year ahead and how global forces play roles.
Where to watch for job losses, by sector
Young businesses are a major source of employment, a key variable determining the economic cycle.
Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending
In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.
High job openings signal wage-price spiral
Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.
How structured credit could be resilient against recession
The macro landscape calls for taking a lower level of risk and being alert to attractive opportunities.
ESG: Hearing the signal above the noise
In our view, the best opportunities lie not at the extremes of ESG rhetoric, but at the heart of sustainability substance.
What is the circular economy, and why is it important?
Adapting business models to be less resource intensive creates opportunity for environmental and economic benefit.
Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed's inflation fight
Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.
How markets could react to Fed and ECB meetings
A mixed batch of inflation readings moved market expectations, but it is more important to remember the Fed’s inflation dashboard.
Cracks emerge in Europe's resilience
Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.
A look at leveraged loans and CLOs
A recent Active Insights podcast features a discussion of leveraged loans, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).
U.S. recession ifs and whens
The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.
U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates
In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.
China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns
China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.
Oil prices face downside risk
We expect oil prices to enter a correction stage and for Russia’s war in Ukraine to play less of a role in oil markets.
Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth
The war and widespread sanctions will likely have a knock-on effect on economic growth, inflation, interest-rate policies, and the future of renewable energy.
War and inflation put bull market in hibernation
Investors may be underestimating the immense range of potential outcomes for the Russia-Ukraine War.
Renewed optimism for securitized credit
We are optimistic about pockets of the U.S. structured credit market — prepayment strategies and commercial mortgage-backed securities — despite shifts in the investment landscape.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.