Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes
July rate cut: “Insurance” policy or recession guard?
The Fed cut interest rates to protect growth from downside risks and described the move as a mid-cycle adjustment to policy, or a so-called “insurance” cut.
Bonds rally as the Fed signals possible rate cut
The global economy has cooled in 2019 as the fallout from the ongoing trade rifts, waning business confidence, and financial market volatility have kept the lid on expansion.
Caution with a chance of bearishness
We are shifting our tactical allocations as weaker data give us doubts about current earnings expectations.
Difficult conditions persist in emerging markets
The trajectory of China’s economy, the outcome of global trade tensions and local elections will determine the performance of emerging-market assets.
Trade war fallout can hurt risky assets
The simmering trade war between the United States and China is expected to continue, and could put the economy at risk.
Central banks walk growth tightrope
The Fed's pivot on rate hikes has rippled around the world, and many other central banks are adopting a more dovish stance to support growth.
Implications of the Huawei export ban
With Huawei blocked by the U.S. Commerce Department from buying U.S. technology, we discuss ramifications on the technology sector and how the ban may end.
Trade tensions could reduce global GDP
There is a significant likelihood that U.S.-China trade tensions will remain high. Effects on global GDP effects are uncertain, but could exceed 1%.
The yield curve's blurred lines
The global economy is showing a few tentative signs of improvement, but risks remain.
Balancing growth and interest rates
The global economy continues to slow. Higher interest rates, weaker demand from China, political troubles in the eurozone, and protectionist tariffs have kept the lid on economic growth.
Tipping points and the economy
The global economy continues to slow. But there are signs that more supportive policies, including a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve, will keep growth within a certain range.
A delicate balance
Forecasting 2019 means interpreting the interactions between economic growth, interest rates, and risky assets.
Securitized debt: Building blocks of a diversified portfolio
Securitized debt may be used to create a diversified portfolio through various risk exposures
ESG outlook for 2019
We see increasing evidence that systems thinking is becoming more prevalent and influential throughout corporations and the investment community.
The U.S. economy’s slow fizzle
There are signs of weakness in major U.S. economic indicators, including home building and investments, raising concerns that one of the longest periods of economic growth in U.S. history may be coming to an end.
What November means for 2019
The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.
China, U.S. trade tensions will reverberate across emerging markets
Emerging market equities will remain under pressure amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.
How company diversity can help performance
The potential to improve work performance is perhaps the most intriguing and least understood argument for diversity — and worth examining in more depth.
October stock market volatility may signal a shift
Recent stock market volatility reflects a process of pricing in the fact that the global growth outlook has diverged.
Italy may be conduit for EM contagion
If Italy's populist government increases government debt, prices of Italian bonds and banks could drop and trigger a larger crisis for the region and world.
Buybacks and M&A may fuel equities, but trade conflict is a key risk
Several trends could boost equity returns, but trade negotiations create market risk.
The unrecognized diversification profile of securitized debt
Securitized debt may be less familiar to many institutions, but it offers the diversification and potential performance profile that many of them seek.
China’s quest for artificial intelligence
China's hardware tech companies are embracing artificial intelligence, including self-driving cars and surveillance, as the government promotes AI hubs.
Sustainable investing: Assessing the choices
Sustainable investing is growing in popularity, and investors should be thoughtful about choosing from a range of strategies and portfolios.
Potential benefits of prepayment risk
Investors seeking strategies to diversify away from corporate credit and interest-rate sensitive sectors may consider prepayment risk.
Are non-U.S. stocks truly cheap?
On the surface, U.S. stocks appear more expensive than non-U.S. stocks, but a quantitative comparison reveals the impact of sector valuations.
China: A view through the looking glass
With President Xi Jinping's second-term underway, growth in China is expected to slow in 2018 as government reins in spending.
Looking for impact in CEO compensation
It’s important for investors to be able to understand how a company’s performance relates to CEO compensation.
How the Japan election may influence global interest rates
The Japan election could have consequences for the future leadership of the Bank of Japan and the country's impact on global interest rate trends.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.