Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes
Calm before the storm
June 2017
In the United States, the economic cycle may be coming to its natural end. What happens next may be a deepening of global risk.
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- Brendan T. Murray
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Europe plays catch up
In the United States, we see an increasing amount of evidence pointing toward late-cycle economic conditions.
Positive fundamentals may be tested by policy uncertainty
For U.S. equity investors, the second quarter offered a number of familiar themes: relatively low volatility, new record highs for major indexes, and a modest advance for stocks.
The Fed may be ahead of the curve
As the market digests the Fed's latest rate increase, a long-anticipated surge in inflation remains elusive.
Why Brazil's crisis creates new concerns
The revelations of May 17 may pose a threat to President Temer's administration, and therefore a threat to Brazil's short- and medium-term economic outlook.
New configurations
The immediate threat to eurozone stability is over, but new risks are rising in other political theaters.
Pillars of global growth
As the domestic U.S. policy outlook dims, markets take their cue from more substantive signs of change.
A braver new world
The global economy is close to firing on all cylinders, but coming changes at the world's major central banks warrant caution ahead.
Global divergences
Global growth continues to diverge, but little seems likely to ignite a corporate or consumer spending boom — whether in the United States or Europe.
Real rhetorical deals
The business of making or breaking deals under Trumponomics may carry big risks for the economy.
Beyond belief: Self-perpetuating market stories
Significant assets may be poised to move in response to the new story of U.S. political change.
See the dove in the Fed's dot plot
The market sees a more hawkish Fed in the December 2016 rate hike, but we see see signs of a dove in the Fed's dot plot.
The deepening of policy uncertainty
Political regime change in Washington D.C. may herald a new trajectory for the global economy. Whether this proves positive or negative remains to be seen.
Diversifying stable value with traditional GICs
Stable value portfolios that avoid traditional GICs may be missing a diversification opportunity that also offers liquidity.
Negative interest rates may have unforeseen consequences
Today's experiments with negative interest rates in Europe and Japan have potential negative consequences for government bonds and the banking sector.
Recognize the value of flexibility as central banks experiment
Unconstrained diversification may be valuable for fixed-income investors as markets monitor possible changes in central bank policies around the globe.
Proceeding toward Brexit: The risks for investors
With the United Kingdom beginning to move forward with Brexit, we see risks to the economy, the pound, and the markets.
Italy's bank troubles challenge EU
Troubled banks in Italy pose a new challenge to the EU, one that has been compounded by the U.K.'s vote in favor of Brexit.
Can government reform brighten EM growth outlook?
Our research has identified both near- and long-term investment opportunities in EM countries that may benefit from a combination of policy reform, policy independence, and insulation from falling commodity prices.
Reassess risk as interest rates creep up
Historically when the Fed raises rates, Treasury rates have tended to move higher — a dynamic that poses risk to today's benchmark-oriented portfolios.
Don’t underestimate this economy
Despite worrisome headlines about the economy, recent data show only a modest loss of momentum.
Constrained credit threatens growth
Stock market rallies often need to climb a wall of worry, and we see that wall getting higher.
How alts have performed in the long run
Comparing the long-term returns and volatility of alternative investments can provide clues on their potential for diversifying a portfolio.
The fixed-income risks that we favor
We see more attractive fixed income risks outside of interest rates, in part because U.S. economic growth may warrant more rate hikes by the Fed.
Value opportunities gain traction in turmoil
Beneath dire headlines about plunging markets, we are seeing value opportunities assert themselves.
Shedding light on alternatives
Classifying alternative investment strategies by objective can help to illuminate the benefits they offer to portfolio diversification.
Tilting toward risk assets
Despite ominous headlines, economic growth appears reasonably stable, which may be supportive of risk assets.
Assembling the global growth mosaic
Putnam's macroeconomic research identifies factors that point to continued weakness in the long-term growth potential of several major developed countries.
New research road tests alternatives
New Putnam research offers insights to help to set performance expectations for alternative strategies under actual market conditions.
Markets sharpen focus on fundamentals
Concerns linger that the causes of the August market selloff could continue to trouble markets, but it's important to consider fundamentals.
Why a bond allocation still matters
With some investors questioning the merits of maintaining a bond allocation, our investigation of asset correlations provides insights.
Innovation is a major driver of growth
Our analysis of TFP — Total Factor Productivity — gives us confidence that innovation can sustain long-term economic growth at pre-2008 levels.
A surprising shortage in housing
Home construction is falling behind the pace of new household formation, creating an imbalance between housing supply and demand.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.