Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes
The Fed’s interest-rate gamble
November 2018
Global economic growth remains vulnerable in the face of escalating trade tensions, higher interest rates, and volatility among emerging markets.
Filter recent posts by:
- All
- Brett S. Kozlowski, CFA
- Daniel J. Graña
- Darren A. Jaroch, CFA, Portfolio Manager and Caroline G. Edwards, CFA, Senior Investment Director
- Equity Team
- Global allocation insights
- Jason R. Vaillancourt, CFA
- Jo Anne Ferullo, CFA
- Katherine Collins, CFA, MTS
- Katherine Collins, CFA, MTS, Head of Sustainable Investing and Stephanie Henderson, Analyst, Equity Research
- Michael J. Atkin
- Michael P. Wands, CFA
- Putnam Investments
- Robert J. Costello III, CFA
- Shep Perkins, CFA, and Simon Davis
- Shep Perkins, CFA, Co-Head of Equities, and Elizabeth Rogers, Analyst
- Web Team
China, U.S. trade tensions will reverberate across emerging markets
Emerging market equities will remain under pressure amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.
How company diversity can help performance
The potential to improve work performance is perhaps the most intriguing and least understood argument for diversity — and worth examining in more depth.
Trade war and rising rates create headwinds for global economy
The outlook for global economic growth is easing because of protectionist tariffs, weakness in emerging markets, and rising oil prices.
October stock market volatility may signal a shift
Recent stock market volatility reflects a process of pricing in the fact that the global growth outlook has diverged.
Tweets and trade tensions
The outlook for global economic growth is easing because of trade tariffs, weakness in emerging markets, and rising oil prices.
Seeking opportunity in uncertainty
Despite risks of inflation and trade conflicts, opportunities exist for equity investors worldwide.
Equities face skepticism over rates and trade
Economic strength is offset by trade risk, a flattening yield curve, and weakness in housing and autos
Market wild cards
The global economy is expected to enjoy relatively solid growth even as emerging markets tumble and the trade wars escalate.
Italy may be conduit for EM contagion
If Italy's populist government increases government debt, prices of Italian bonds and banks could drop and trigger a larger crisis for the region and world.
Buybacks and M&A may fuel equities, but trade conflict is a key risk
Several trends could boost equity returns, but trade negotiations create market risk.
Downside risks loom even larger
While the outlook for global growth is favorable — albeit less synchronized — the view could change if the Federal Reserve overtightens and trade spats escalate.
The unrecognized diversification profile of securitized debt
Securitized debt may be less familiar to many institutions, but it offers the diversification and potential performance profile that many of them seek.
China’s quest for artificial intelligence
China's hardware tech companies are embracing artificial intelligence, including self-driving cars and surveillance, as the government promotes AI hubs.
Italy’s Political Opera
Italy’s Giuseppe Conte was sworn in to power in early June to head a new populist government — made up of an unlikely marriage between the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) and the far-right League party.
Sustainable investing: Assessing the choices
Sustainable investing is growing in popularity, and investors should be thoughtful about choosing from a range of strategies and portfolios.
The inflation conundrum
Our outlook contains some small but noteworthy shifts. Rising oil prices are expected to lift slightly the trajectory of inflation in the United States because of the pass-through to consumer prices.
Trump’s trade bluff?
While there is low probability the tariff dispute between the United States and China will erupt into a full-scale trade war, the markets are struggling to grasp the implications of the measures.
Potential benefits of prepayment risk
Investors seeking strategies to diversify away from corporate credit and interest-rate sensitive sectors may consider prepayment risk.
Are non-U.S. stocks truly cheap?
On the surface, U.S. stocks appear more expensive than non-U.S. stocks, but a quantitative comparison reveals the impact of sector valuations.
China: A view through the looking glass
With President Xi Jinping's second-term underway, growth in China is expected to slow in 2018 as government reins in spending.
Looking for impact in CEO compensation
It’s important for investors to be able to understand how a company’s performance relates to CEO compensation.
How the Japan election may influence global interest rates
The Japan election could have consequences for the future leadership of the Bank of Japan and the country's impact on global interest rate trends.
Using and enhancing ESG investment data
ESG data is having investment impact but is still evolving, and stands to benefit from feedback offered by fundamental analysts.
Why Brazil's crisis creates new concerns
The revelations of May 17 may pose a threat to President Temer's administration, and therefore a threat to Brazil's short- and medium-term economic outlook.
See the dove in the Fed's dot plot
The market sees a more hawkish Fed in the December 2016 rate hike, but we see see signs of a dove in the Fed's dot plot.
Diversifying stable value with traditional GICs
Stable value portfolios that avoid traditional GICs may be missing a diversification opportunity that also offers liquidity.
Recognize the value of flexibility as central banks experiment
Unconstrained diversification may be valuable for fixed-income investors as markets monitor possible changes in central bank policies around the globe.
Proceeding toward Brexit: The risks for investors
With the United Kingdom beginning to move forward with Brexit, we see risks to the economy, the pound, and the markets.
Italy's bank troubles challenge EU
Troubled banks in Italy pose a new challenge to the EU, one that has been compounded by the U.K.'s vote in favor of Brexit.
Can government reform brighten EM growth outlook?
Our research has identified both near- and long-term investment opportunities in EM countries that may benefit from a combination of policy reform, policy independence, and insulation from falling commodity prices.
Reassess risk as interest rates creep up
Historically when the Fed raises rates, Treasury rates have tended to move higher — a dynamic that poses risk to today's benchmark-oriented portfolios.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.