The Macro Report | February 2018

Sparking a U.S. trade war?

We are seeing a return of the threat of protectionism in the United States. President Trump recently placed tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, sparking concern the country may prompt trade wars. This comes as the administration renegotiates the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada. China has also been a target of recent trade rhetoric. If the administration withdraws from NAFTA, or imposes a spate of anti-Chinese trade measures, there will be downside risks to the U.S. economy.

As trade issues linger, investors also have to contend with a weaker dollar. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin broke with tradition in January when he declared that a weaker dollar is good for American trade. Interestingly, although Mnuchin's comments paved the way for more losses in the greenback, they weren't the key to the currency's weakness. Its decline to three-year lows in January was driven by the U.S. current account deficit and risk appetite. Stronger global conditions also play a role. For example, Germany's economy continues to be a bright spot in the eurozone — enough to encourage local unions to push for higher wages.

Solar panels, washing machines, and Trump tariffs

Solar panels, washing machines, and Trump tariffs

Trump's trade protectionist push was highlighted by the recent imposition of tariffs on specific sectors.

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Spotlight on the dollar

Spotlight on the dollar

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin breaks with tradition by declaring that a weaker dollar is good for U.S. trade, prompting a further slide in the currency.

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Wages and inflation in Germany

Wages and inflation in Germany

Recent wage negotiations could push inflation closer to the European Central Bank's target in a few years.

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About the macro report

The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.

Michael Atkin, Portfolio Manager
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis

Albert Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis

Onsel Emre, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics

Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics

Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting

Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics