The Macro Report | February 2019
Tipping points and the economy
The global economy continues to slow. But there are signs that more supportive policies, including a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve, will keep growth within a certain range. In the United States, there is scope for more conflict between President Trump and Congress as negotiations continue over government funding and border security. In late January, Trump signed a short-term spending bill into law, ending the longest government shutdown in history amid a fight over building a border wall. However, the conflict has affected consumer confidence.
Across the pond, the eurozone's economy is suffering its biggest slowdown in half a decade, raising questions over whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will be able to raise interest rates in 2019. Meanwhile, China's economy may stabilize as the central bank continues to take steps to cushion the slowdown. The United States and China launched new trade talks, fueling hope that the tariff conflict would soon be resolved. The outcomes of the issues mentioned above could be enough to tip the global economic outlook one way or another.
U.S. gridlock clouds the horizon
The conflict between President Trump and Congress over border security has influence on consumer confidence and negotiations to resolve the U.S–China trade spat.
The ECB's next step
The central bank has turned a little more dovish on interest rates amid ongoing signs of economic weakness and speculation of new, cheap loans to banks.
About the macro report
The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.
Michael Atkin, Portfolio Manager
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis
Albert Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis
Onsel Emre, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics
Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics
Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting
Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics