The Macro Report | March 2019

Balancing growth and interest rates

The global economy continues to slow. Higher interest rates, weaker demand from China, political troubles in the eurozone, and protectionist tariffs have kept the lid on economic growth. Still, that downward trend may be easing, and we are likely to see waves of optimism and pessimism about growth in the coming months. The Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot on interest rates has boosted markets and prompted investors to bet against further hikes. The Fed will also take a more flexible approach to shrinking its balance sheet.

Meanwhile, China continues to fine-tune measures to cushion its cooling economy. Amid this flow of supportive measures, we expect growth in the world’s second-largest economy will stabilize. China and the United States are also close to a trade deal, and any truce would be a positive step. In Venezuela, meanwhile, sanctions have essentially ended crude exports to the United States, causing fluctuations in global oil prices.

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The Fed turns dovish

The Fed turns dovish

Low inflation and a moderate deceleration in economic growth may prompt the Fed to pause on future rate increases.

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China’s growth playbook

China’s growth playbook

The world’s second-biggest economy may be stabilizing as policy makers cushion some of the slowdown with more supportive measures.

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Venezuela crisis weighs on oil

Venezuela crisis weighs on oil

Economic sanctions have essentially shut Venezuelan oil out of the U.S. market and caused fluctuations in global oil prices.

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About the macro report

The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.

Michael Atkin, Portfolio Manager
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis

Albert Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis

Onsel Emre, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics

Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics

Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting

Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics