Balancing growth and interest rates

The global economy continues to slow. Higher interest rates, weaker demand from China, political troubles in the eurozone, and protectionist tariffs have kept the lid on economic growth. Still, that downward trend may be easing, and we are likely to see waves of optimism and pessimism about growth in the coming months. The Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot on interest rates has boosted markets and prompted investors to bet against further hikes. The Fed will also take a more flexible approach to shrinking its balance sheet.

Meanwhile, China continues to fine-tune measures to cushion its cooling economy. Amid this flow of supportive measures, we expect growth in the world’s second-largest economy will stabilize. China and the United States are also close to a trade deal, and any truce would be a positive step. In Venezuela, meanwhile, sanctions have essentially ended crude exports to the United States, causing fluctuations in global oil prices.