The Macro Report | October 2018
Tweets and trade tensions
The outlook for global economic growth is easing because of trade tariffs, weakness in emerging markets, and rising oil prices. In the United States, growth will remain steady this year but is expected to slow in 2019 as the fiscal stimulus abates. The United States, Mexico, and Canada reached a new trade deal that is a lot like NAFTA but with a few upgrades (and a few concessions). The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) increases dairy exports from the United States to Canada and improves protections for workers in all three countries.
The story isn’t so encouraging for China or Italy. The United States and China continue to be locked in a spiraling trade war. Policy makers in Beijing stepped up efforts to ease monetary policy to lift growth in a slowing economy as the trade conflict intensifies. China’s hopes of negotiating a free trade pact with Canada or Mexico were dealt a setback by a provision in the USMCA that aims to forbid such deals with “non-market” countries. Meanwhile, Italy’s ballooning debt levels and an unstable coalition government are weighing on the European Union (EU) and global markets.
NAFTA 2.0 emerges
The United States, Canada, and Mexico have reached a new NAFTA agreement, lifting months of uncertainty over the trade bloc.
China grapples with trade tensions
Policy makers in Beijing continue to signal a willingness to react to signs of slowing economic growth and risks from trade tensions.
About the macro report
The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.
Michael Atkin, Portfolio Manager
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis
Albert Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis
Onsel Emre, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics
Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics
Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting
Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics